Want a model for what television is going to look like 10 years from now? Look at your radio.
Or rather, don't look at your radio. Do you even have a radio in your house? You probably have one in your car, where it's background noise on your commute. There might even be a couple of radio programs you regularly listen to -- though you tend to download them as podcasts, and you're not broken up if you miss them. However, just the sheer volume of people backgrounding it and occasionally listening to the radio means radio still has a solid audience and market share: it's just not where the advertising money really goes. It's not exciting, it's just there.
Instead of getting your audio fed to you by radio stations, you dig it out for yourself. Through friend recommendations, from advertising campaigns in other media, through social networking websites like last.fm, you discover the audio you like and listen to it when you feel like.
And that's the destiny of TV. People will get their video content ad-hoc from other sources. They'll still pay for it, they'll still tune in for news, sports, weather and other time-sensitive broadcasts, but the real creativity, the real effort, and importantly the real money will be in pre-packaged content.
Despite the dire predictions of Queen and of course Buggles, the demise of radio as a dominant cultural force was not the demise of musical creativity. And nor will the death of television be the death of good video content: it will just be a much more varied market, and competitors in that market will have to try much harder to get noticed in a much more varied field.
And I say bring it on, frankly.
Comments
Simon
Laurie
Ade B
Radio doesnt need your full attention which is why it's great in the car, in the shower, in the kitchen etc..
Also, lot's of advertising money does go onto radio, it's very effective as you get a captive audience in their cars, in their showers, in their kitchens.
Ade B
Radio's audience in the UK isnt just solid, it's increasing.
Laurie
And people do already "background" TV:
http://tinyurl.com/3xrljs
In fact, 70% of people use more than 1 medium simultaneously -- and the Internet is the one that usually gets their primary attention.
Errorfied/Dominic
I must totally have a high IQ.
Robert
While commercial radio is a bit pappy no TV or website comes close to Radio 4 - especially Today (before 8 o'clock) or the Westminster Hour.
Nothing better than curlign up in bed with Andrew Rawnsley...